2014 World Cup

BREAKINGVIEWS SOCCERNOMICS

Predicting the winner of soccer’s biggest prize using hard numbers – player values, countries’ economic and social factors.
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Adjust the strength of each component to make your own prediction.

SQUAD VALUE

More expensive players are probably more skillful

POPULATION

Countries with lots of people have an advantage

FAN BASE

Teams with keen support back home should do well

PARTICIPATION

Deeper, broader involvement in the sport will help

FIFA RANKING

Based on the results of matches recently played

RESET
WINNER A B C D E F G H GROUP STAGE ROUND OF 16 QUARTER FINALS THIRD PLACE
How it works: There are 32 sides set to compete for the soccer World Cup due to be held in Brazil in June and July 2014. They start in groups of four with the top two sides progressing to the knockout stages. Here, they are represented by their respective national flags. Breakingviews has scored the 32 countries by rank in each of five each criterion used. Interactive users can change predicted outcomes by adjusting the weight attached to each of the five inputs.

Sources: Squad values according to transfermarkt.co.uk. Population numbers taken from the World Bank, with the exception of England, which comes from its Office for National Statistics. Participation rates calculated using FIFA “All Players” data, adjusted for gender and expressed as a percentage of male population. Fan Base rankings based on FIFA figures for the number of times games in the 2010 tournament were watched for at least 20 minutes. Data loaded December 2013.